Metals Roundup April '25: Gold shines as base metal prices decline at fastest pace since 2022

Image: Mike and Wombo collaboration

MAGA failed, Copper trounced

Last month we discussed the bearish copper head and shoulders pattern that formed, right after the previous one. Here’s that chart.

I also suggested it coincided with the overall commodities price index head and shoulders that I’ve been writing about since mid-last year 👇

And here’s the latest on that score, remembering it includes soft (agricultural) commodities as well—but with a cyclical downward trend still intact.

If trade dislocations continue, who knows where it might go.

Meanwhile Gold shone, taking out a new ATH above US$3,500poz.

But to see how fast base metal prices declined in April, you might want to strap in.

Your Charts 📈

Base Metals 🔗🏮🔌

Last month I noted:

“Short term front-running, slowing, and down from here on in, until tariff resolution, dollar weakness and China stimulus—and what that means is that there’s no change to the NextLevelCorporate thesis.”

Well, taking a look at the chart below, it was definitely the case of “down from here on in.”

Copyright, NextLevelCorporate Advisory

While gold shone bright in April, hitting new highs, base metal prices plunged, accelerating by 9.5%—the fastest pace of decline since July 2022, when the Fed imposed a 75-basis point rate hike and the dollar strengthened.

As you’ll be aware by now, a high dollar against the euro and weak demand from China (exacerbated by a strong dollar) is negative for commodity demand outside the U.S.

Bulk minerals - inch by inch, still no help from USD 🧱👷‍♀️🌉

SMASHED in March and still losing pace in April.

It’s also the first time since November last year that we’ve seen price declines in both bases and bulks, accelerate.

Copyright, NextLevelCorporate Advisory

Energy minerals (ex-coal and oil) ⚗🧲☢

The July 6, 2023, price high for LME Lithium Hydroxide CIF was US$46,046.

On the last day of April, it was US$9,152, some $100 lower than last month, but still 79% down from its July 2023 peak. The consistent sound you’re hearing is, ouch!

Good luck trying to price it today. Beware miners unless you’re a trader.

Although not included in the index, uranium spot hit US$69/t—still well below its peak in January, and still no change to the ALP’s vacuous negative stance on zero emissions sustainable uranium.

If the new Aussie playbook is to short high calorific value hydrocarbons and uranium while going long intermittent large footprint renewables; we can expect brown outs, blackouts, power rationing in the not-too-distant future.

And when AI, data centres and blockchain truly collide, we will have to rethink these politically motivated energy choices.

Volatility (still) ahead for industrial metals, no change to thesis

I’ll say it again, Aussie export commodities are in for a few volatile years—so, you may want to revisit and potentially recalibrate your investment thesis and corporate development strategy if you’ve built your strategy for yesterday’s macro and geopolitical drivers.

Keep an eye on the dollar as Trump guns USS Alonism’s engines with tariffs, sanctions and other goodies, and then reverses policy only to pivot once again or make some self-serving comment—all the while screaming ramming speed.

As I also mentioned last month, we’re heading for some cyclical dollar weakness (and you can see that with the USD weakening against the euro and the AUD. amongst other currencies), but within a secular or long-term dollar strength thesis. That also hasn’t changed. Weakness followed by strength is typical.

Some weakness in the dollar should lead to respite outside the U.S., with a gentler dollar actually creating liquidity in those countries and creating abundance in the force, i.e., the Eurodollar market.

And while we’ve seen a glimpse of a Dollar Kenobi (a weaker USD against other currencies) we’re not there yet.

Until then, make sure your projects and growth levers (and funding methods) are profoundly robust, because the strength of the dollar and the level of demand for our commodities from China, will continue to drive Western Australia’s fortunes.

Also, be careful if you’re deal-making. Right now, we’re likely to mainly see desperation deals and Government support band-aids that would make Keating’s cat laugh as winter approaches. And after that bloodletting—a spring rebirth. There’s a time for all commodities if you watch the macro.

But the silver lining for now? Gold and PM (still 😅)

Precious metals continue to glimmer right now—gold and silver, in particular. It’s all good.

And the golden bears? Looking good Billy Ray, still...

See you in the market.

M


Image: Mike and Wombo collaboration

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